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From A-list to delist

從爭先上市到選擇退市   

Why Britain’s equity market is shrinking

為什么英國股市不斷縮水？

A few months ago Trian, a hedge fund, revealed that it had built a 6% stake in Ferguson, a London-listed company that supplies the building trade. Trian is run by Nelson Peltz, who has a long history as the sort of activist investor who buys stakes in firms and then uses his influence over management to boost the share price. Ferguson makes most of its profits in America. Yet its shares traded at a discount to peers listed there. Perhaps something could be done to change this.

在幾個(gè)月前，對(duì)沖基金管理公司特里安（Trian）透露道，他們購買了弗格森（Ferguson）公司6%的股份，一家于倫敦上市的建材供應(yīng)商。特里安基金公司創(chuàng)始人是華爾街赫赫有名的激進(jìn)投資者尼爾森·佩爾茨(Nelson Peltz)，他慣用的套路便是：先持有某公司部分股票，隨后再利用自身影響力對(duì)管理層施壓推升股價(jià)。盡管弗格森公司的大部分利潤源于美國，然而相較于美國上市的其他同業(yè)公司，該公司的股價(jià)偏低。也許其中就蘊(yùn)有商機(jī)。

注：

1. Ferguson plc is a Jersey-registered multinational plumbing and heating products distributor with its head office in Winnersh Triangle, United Kingdom. Ferguson has approximately 35,000 employees across three regions.Wolseley plc changed its name to Ferguson plc in 2017 to reflect the primacy of its US operations. The Company is registered in Jersey. The company continues to trade as Wolseley in the UK and Canada.

Wolseley plc 是世界最大的熱化和配管產(chǎn)品交易分銷商和一個(gè)主導(dǎo)的對(duì)專業(yè)市場的建造材料供應(yīng)商。Wolseley 在歐洲和北美洲經(jīng)營。Wolseley在美國以Ferguson Enterprises和Stock Building Supply為名經(jīng)營。沃斯利集團(tuán)是全球最大的保暖及管道器材批發(fā)商、傳統(tǒng)建材市場的主要供應(yīng)商，分別在倫敦和紐約上市。

2. 納爾遜·佩爾茨( Nelson peltz)：佩爾茨在2005年成立了一個(gè)對(duì)沖基金公司 “特里安金管理公司”( Trian Fund Management)，專門從事對(duì)經(jīng)營不善的上市公司的敵意收購，通過入駐目標(biāo)公司董事會(huì)、整頓高管團(tuán)隊(duì)和商業(yè)模式、精簡員工與運(yùn)營結(jié)構(gòu)來挖掘價(jià)值。這個(gè)基金目前管理110億美元。

3. 推薦閱讀《門口的野蠻人》

Sure enough, Ferguson said last month that it would spin off the British part of the business to focus >equity capital.

果然在上月，弗格森宣布他們將逐步從母公司分拆英國業(yè)務(wù)，而專注于美國業(yè)務(wù)。該公司還表示，他們正考慮轉(zhuǎn)移上市地點(diǎn)。萬一該公司真選擇在英國退市，也不過是英國市場資本逃離大趨勢下的一個(gè)縮影罷了。

注：

1. spin-off：分拆，把(新公司的股票)分給母公司的股東；把新公司的股票分給母公司的股東以創(chuàng)建(公司)

分拆是指一個(gè)母公司通過將其在子公司中所擁有的股份，按比例地分配給現(xiàn)有母公司的股東，從而在法律上和組織上將子公司的經(jīng)營從母公司的經(jīng)營中分離出去，這時(shí)，便有兩家獨(dú)立的（最初的）、股份比例相同的公司存在，而在此之前只有一家公司。

2. should 置於句首，而省略if, 意思是「萬一」

America’s stock of equity has been getting smaller for a while, because of share buy-backs, a secular fall in the number of new listings and the growing incidence of leveraged buy-outs, in which low-interest debt replaces equity. Britain is now the leading candidate for such “de-equitisation”, says Robert Buckland, of Citigroup. The net stock of equity outstanding has fallen by 3% since the start of 2018, faster than in America. Cheap debt is a factor. But debt is cheap everywhere. What makes Britain so ripe for the picking is its culture of accountability to shareholders. Activist investors, like Trian, can get results there.

受股票回購熱潮、新上市公司數(shù)量不斷下降以及杠桿收購案例不斷上升的影響（低息債務(wù)融資取代股權(quán)融資），美國股市規(guī)模已經(jīng)持續(xù)衰退一段時(shí)間。 但花旗集團(tuán)的羅伯特·巴克蘭（Robert Buckland）表示，英國現(xiàn)已成為這種“去股權(quán)化”現(xiàn)象的領(lǐng)頭者，自2018年年初以來，（英國股市）已發(fā)行流通股數(shù)已下降了3%，降速高于美國。英國金融市場其他融資成本越來越低也許是一個(gè)因素，但其實(shí)全球也都一樣，真正令英國股票市場脫穎而出的是其發(fā)展多年所形成的對(duì)股東負(fù)責(zé)的文化，能讓像特里安這樣激進(jìn)的投資機(jī)構(gòu)從中獲利。（正是英國股市良好的對(duì)股東負(fù)責(zé)的文化，使得眾多投資者得以如愿以償?shù)墨@得收益后，大舉抽資逃離，從而最終造成了英國股市現(xiàn)今去股市化，即股市衰退的局面）

注：

1. stock of equity outstanding：Shares outstanding refer to a company's stock currently held by all its shareholders, including share blocks held by institutional investors and restricted shares owned by the company’s officers and insiders.

2. 羅伯特·巴克蘭：花旗集團(tuán)全球首席股票策略師

3. de-equitisation：去股權(quán)化，指股票市場規(guī)模收縮的趨勢，企業(yè)傾向于從股權(quán)融資轉(zhuǎn)向其他融資方式。

4. so ripe for the picking：To be in an ideal position or at the perfect stage to be utilized, benefited or profited from, taken advantage of, exploited, etc.

https://idioms.thefreedictionary.com/ripe+for+the+picking

The backdrop is a shift in the relative costs of debt and equity finance. One way to look at this is through the prism of expected returns. A rough-and-ready gauge of expected returns >earnings yield would not change. The prospective earnings yield >ftse All-Share index of London-listed stocks is 7.6%. Compare this with a proxy for an expected real return on corporate debt—the yield on investment-grade bonds less the current inflation rate, which is below zero. The gap between the two is the reward demanded for holding riskier stocks. It is also, by symmetry, a measure of the relative cost to companies of issuing equity versus debt.

在英國債權(quán)融資和股權(quán)融資的相對(duì)成本發(fā)生了改變的大背景下，我們可以從預(yù)期收益的角度來理解這一現(xiàn)象。衡量股票預(yù)期回報(bào)率的一個(gè)粗略指標(biāo)是收益率，即市盈率的倒數(shù)（如果市盈率是20，收益率為5%）。同時(shí)它也可以衡量實(shí)際收益率：如果通脹爆發(fā)，資產(chǎn)及消費(fèi)品價(jià)格以相同的速率上漲，盈利收益率將保持不變。倫敦富時(shí)全股指數(shù)其預(yù)期盈利收益率為7.6%。相較而言，公司債投資預(yù)期實(shí)際回報(bào)率竟然低于零，即投資級(jí)債券的收益率減去目前通脹率。股指收益率和債券收益率兩者之間的差額是持有更高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的股票資產(chǎn)所要求的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)溢價(jià)。反過來看，這也是衡量公司發(fā)行股票還是發(fā)行債券兩者間成本的指標(biāo)。（對(duì)股權(quán)融資和債權(quán)融資而言，其投資者收益率要求就代表了其融資成本。那么上述的債券融資收益率要求遠(yuǎn)低于股權(quán)融資收益率要求，所以其成本也低，因此低廉的債權(quán)融資對(duì)股權(quán)融資形成了競爭，投資者紛紛涌入債券市場以尋求收益）

注：

1. rough-and-ready：美國習(xí)慣用語。If something is rough and ready, it is simple and basic, or it is not exact, because it has been made or done quickly.

2. 市盈率：每股市價(jià)與每股盈利的比率，是最常用來評(píng)估股價(jià)水平是否合理的指標(biāo)之一。

3. FTSE All-Share index：富時(shí)綜合股價(jià)指數(shù)，市值加權(quán)指數(shù)，納入600余家在英國倫敦交易所上市的股票。

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FTSE_All-Share_Index

This “financing gap” is noticeably wide in Britain (see chart). The size of the gap, says Mr Buckland, “offers a potential arbitrage opportunity for private equity and other debt-funded investors”. In other words, there is plenty of scope to replace dear equity capital with cheap debt capital.

英國的“融資差值”問題甚是明顯（詳見圖表）。巴克蘭指出，這程度的缺口“很有可能為私募股權(quán)和其它債權(quán)投資者創(chuàng)造套利機(jī)會(huì)”。換句話說，用便宜的舉債成本取代昂貴的股權(quán)成本有著很大投機(jī)空間。

There are particular conditions in Britain that make this opportunity worth looking at. The FTSE All-Share has fared worse than most other rich-world stock indices since Britain voted to leave the European Union in 2016. The sharp fall in the pound since then has boosted the sterling value of foreign profits made overseas. More than 70% of the earnings of companies listed in Britain come from overseas; around a quarter comes from North America alone. There is thus an opening for American investors or companies to buy dollar earnings >industrial firms.

而上述套利機(jī)會(huì)得以實(shí)現(xiàn)的前提，正是源自于英國現(xiàn)今所處的特殊狀況。首先是，自2016年英國公投“脫歐”以來，其富時(shí)全股（FTSE All-Share）指數(shù)與其他大多數(shù)發(fā)達(dá)國家相比而言，跌幅更大。其次是，英鎊急劇貶值使得海外業(yè)務(wù)利潤率激增。在英國上市的公司中有70%以上的收入來自海外，其中僅北美地區(qū)就約占1/4。因此這一狀況為美國投資者低價(jià)獲得更多的美元收益提供了窗口。（英鎊貶值，美國投資者投資英國企業(yè)成本降低，同等美元投資下，獲取更多的英鎊投資收益）巴克蘭先生研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，那些大部分收益來自美國的英國公司，其估值卻低于美國同行，并且多數(shù)是工業(yè)公司。

Scour the bourses of the world and you will not struggle to find lots of cheap industrial stocks. The problem with investing in such out-of-favour shares is that somebody else must come along to buy them off you at a higher price for the strategy to work. There is no law that says cheap stock cannot stay cheap for a long time, or become even cheaper. The activist approach is to buy cheap-looking stocks and then work to get their latent value realised. This is more likely to succeed in Britain than in Germany, Japan, South Korea or other places with cheap-looking cyclical stocks. It could involve a push to get a firm to buy back its own shares. It could mean hawking the company, or a division of it, to another company or to a private-equity firm. If buyers won’t come to you, go to them by relisting somewhere that puts a higher value on your shares, such as America.

環(huán)顧全球股市，不難發(fā)現(xiàn)有大量工業(yè)股被低估。投資這些失寵股票的關(guān)鍵在于，必須有人以高價(jià)接盤，這樣整個(gè)策略才能奏效。沒有任何一個(gè)法律規(guī)定低價(jià)的股票不能一直保持低價(jià)，或者不能更低。激進(jìn)分子的做法是買入看似便宜的股票，然后努力實(shí)現(xiàn)其潛在價(jià)值。相比較德國、日本、韓國或其他擁有廉價(jià)周期性股票的國家，這一策略在英國更容易成功。這可能會(huì)促使公司回購自己的股票。 這也可能意味著需要公司向另一家公司或私募股權(quán)公司兜售自己的股票或某一塊業(yè)務(wù)。如果這里沒有買家，那么就去別處——一個(gè)愿意出高價(jià)的地方，比如美國。

注：
1. bourse可數(shù)名詞 The bourse of a European city or region is its stock exchange. (歐洲的)證券交易所；股票交易所

2.  Industrial stock 工業(yè)股，是指在證券交易所掛牌交易的工業(yè)類公司所發(fā)行的股票、債券等證券。比如：電力，鋼鐵，汽車，食品，飲料，釀酒，紡織，制藥，等從事產(chǎn)品制造的企業(yè)發(fā)行的股票、債券等證券。

3.  Latent: Latent is used to describe something which is hidden and not obvious at the moment, but which may develop further in the future. 潛在的；隱藏的

eg. Advertisements attempt to project a latent meaning behind an overt message.

廣告試圖傳達(dá)一種隱藏在公開信息里的潛在意義。

As yet there has been no nativist backlash. Britain’s stockmarket seems likely to shrink further. Whatever the means—under-the-radar buy-outs, mergers, spin-offs, or simply a drying-up of new issues—the underlying cause will be the same. Companies are turning their backs on the stockmarket because equity capital is relatively dear. The irony is that Britain’s a-list shareholder culture makes its de-equitisation all the likelier.

到目前為止，本土主義者還未強(qiáng)烈反對(duì)。英國股市似乎還會(huì)進(jìn)一步收縮，不管方式是什么——幕后收購、兼并、分拆，或者僅僅是停止發(fā)行新股——背后的原因都是一樣的，那就是由于股票資本相對(duì)昂貴，迫使許多公司放棄股票市場。諷刺的是，正是英國引以為傲的一流股東文化，給了股市沉重的一擊。

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翻譯組：

Olivia，教育從業(yè)者，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

Vivifang，女，外幣債券交易員，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

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Leon,  男，金融專業(yè)研究生，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人鐵粉

Emily，食物鏈底端金融民工，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

Jessie Lulu, 金融從業(yè)者，愛陽光，愛細(xì)雨，愛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人