美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在考慮改變其貨幣政策框架。貝萊德投資研究所經(jīng)濟(jì)與市場(chǎng)研究主管Elga Bartsch撰文，評(píng)估了這種改變對(duì)市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)的潛在影響。
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)正在考慮將其貨幣政策框架從靈活的通脹預(yù)測(cè)目標(biāo)轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)閹追N補(bǔ)償策略中的一個(gè)。
The Federal Reserve is considering a changing its monetary policy framework from flexible inflation forecast targeting to one of several strategies known as make-up strategies.
這對(duì)市場(chǎng)和經(jīng)濟(jì)可能意味著什么？在這篇文章中我深入探討了潛在影響，本文是美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)潛在轉(zhuǎn)變的一系列博客文章中的最后一篇。
What does this potentially mean for markets and the economy? I delve into the potential impact in this post, the final in a series of blog posts on the Fed’s potential shift.
在比較美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)當(dāng)前貨幣政策體系的有效性與正在考慮的補(bǔ)充策略替代方案（包括平均通脹目標(biāo)（AIT）和價(jià)格水平目標(biāo)（PLT））的潛力時(shí)，出現(xiàn)了幾個(gè)共同的主題。美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和中央銀行界以外的學(xué)者對(duì)此進(jìn)行了廣泛的研究。數(shù)千個(gè)模型結(jié)果可以概括為四個(gè)補(bǔ)償策略的主要特征。
A few common themes emerge when comparing the efficacy of the Fed’s current monetary policy system with the potential of the make-up strategy alternatives under consideration, including average inflation targeting (AIT) and price level targeting (PLT). Extensive studies on this topic have been done by the Fed and academics outside of the central banking world. Thousands of model outcomes can be summarized into four main features of make-up strategies.
1. 經(jīng)濟(jì)在衰退后更迅速地恢復(fù)到平穩(wěn)狀態(tài)（在穩(wěn)定狀態(tài)下，通脹率達(dá)到目標(biāo)，并且產(chǎn)出缺口縮?。?。
2. 利率可能會(huì)長(zhǎng)期保持在較低水平。如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在全球金融危機(jī)后采取了一系列補(bǔ)償策略中的任何一種，它可能不會(huì)從危機(jī)后的低點(diǎn)開始加息，即使至今為止。
3. 宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)減少。
4. 資產(chǎn)泡沫可能會(huì)變得更加普遍——除非在補(bǔ)償策略運(yùn)作時(shí)收緊宏觀審慎規(guī)則。
1. The economy returns more quickly to a steady state (where inflation is at target and the output gap is closed) after a downturn.
2. Interest rates would likely stay lower for longer. If the Fed had adopted any one of a number of make-up strategies after the global financial crisis, it would probably not have started to raise rates from post-crisis lows – even by now.
3. Macroeconomic volatility could decrease.
4. Asset bubbles could become more common – unless macro prudential rules are tightened when make-up strategies are in place.
有關(guān)金融市場(chǎng)如何應(yīng)對(duì)三種潛在情況的更詳細(xì)信息，請(qǐng)參閱下表。
See the table below for a more detailed look at how financial markets could respond to three potential scenarios.
如果實(shí)施一項(xiàng)新的策略，當(dāng)前美國(guó)的貨幣擴(kuò)張可能需要數(shù)年的時(shí)間。這是因?yàn)榭紤]補(bǔ)償策略的意愿表明，長(zhǎng)期利率較低，因此偏向于更寬松而不是更緊縮的貨幣政策，而且政策失誤導(dǎo)致擴(kuò)張周期縮短的可能性較低。但是，由于金融脆弱性很可能會(huì)更快地積聚起來(lái)，因此需要密切監(jiān)控經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的其他潛在風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。
The current U.S. expansion could have years more to run if a new strategy were implemented. This is because the willingness to consider make-up strategies suggests lower-for longer interest rates and therefore a bias toward easier rather than tighter monetary policy – and a lower chance that a policy mistake could cut short the expansion. But other potential risks to the recovery would need be monitored closely because financial vulnerabilities would likely build up faster.
如果美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)決定實(shí)施補(bǔ)償策略，我們相信，未來(lái)出現(xiàn)極端宏觀結(jié)果的可能性或會(huì)降低，特別是由于缺乏貨幣政策火力，經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退進(jìn)一步惡化為全面蕭條的情況。這是因?yàn)槔氏孪蘅赡懿粫?huì)經(jīng)常成為限制因素。我們認(rèn)為，全面通貨緊縮的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)也會(huì)下降。這些負(fù)面事件發(fā)生的可能性越低，加之長(zhǎng)期利率的降低和長(zhǎng)期通脹預(yù)期的提高，可能支持風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)。
If the Fed decides that a make-up strategy should be implemented, we believe that the future chance of extreme macro outcomes – especially a recession deepening into a full-blown depression because of a lack of monetary policy firepower – may be reduced. This is because the interest-rate floor may not become a limiting factor as often. The risk of full-blown deflation would also decline, in our view. The lower chance of these negative events – combined with lower-for-longer interest rates and higher long-term inflation expectations – would likely support risk assets.
以歷史標(biāo)準(zhǔn)衡量，目前較低的波動(dòng)性，也可能發(fā)生變化。在可依賴的補(bǔ)償策略下，中期宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)可能會(huì)下降。在市場(chǎng)消化美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)任何新的通脹策略的同時(shí)，短期內(nèi)波動(dòng)率也可能上升。將需要有效的美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)溝通來(lái)管理這一轉(zhuǎn)變。
Volatility – currently low by historical standards – could also change. Medium-term macroeconomic volatility would likely decline under credible make-up strategies. Volatility could also rise in the short term while the market digests any new Fed inflation strategy. Effective Fed communication would be needed to manage this transition.
但在現(xiàn)實(shí)中，任何實(shí)際的AIT的實(shí)施（或其他補(bǔ)償策略）都可能被稀釋。正如美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的Richard Clariada今年5月所說(shuō)，“我們的審查更有可能在我們實(shí)施貨幣政策的方式上產(chǎn)生進(jìn)化，而不是革命?！痹蕉嗟难胄泄賳T說(shuō)不會(huì)有大變化，其可能產(chǎn)生的影響就越小。
But in reality, any actual implementation of AIT (or other make-up strategies) is likely to be diluted. As the Fed’s Richard Clarida said in May this year, “our review is more likely to produce evolution, not a revolution, in the way we conduct monetary policy.” The more central bankers say there won’t be a big change, the lesser the likely impact.
政策制定者可能只會(huì)在下一次經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退期間引入新的戰(zhàn)略。他們也可能對(duì)金融過(guò)熱以及由此帶來(lái)的金融穩(wěn)定風(fēng)險(xiǎn)持謹(jǐn)慎態(tài)度。重要的是，AIT依賴于對(duì)通脹預(yù)期的成功操縱，而在經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇期間，央行官員們一直未能有效地做到這一點(diǎn)。正在被提出的一些彌補(bǔ)策略，例如“臨時(shí)”或“目標(biāo)”PLT，可能會(huì)遇到與中央銀行預(yù)先給出特定政策承諾相關(guān)的時(shí)間不一致問題。最后必須考慮的是：如果在沒有具體說(shuō)明將采取哪些措施來(lái)引起通脹超調(diào)的情況下實(shí)施AIT，政策效果將受到損害。
Policymakers may only introduce a new strategy during the next downturn. They may also be wary of financial overheating and the resulting risks to financial stability. Importantly, AIT depends on the successful manipulation of inflation expectations, something central bankers have been unable to effectively do during this economic recovery. Some of the make-up strategies being proposed – such as “temporary” or “targeted” PLT – could suffer from time inconsistency issues relating to the challenge of central banks to pre-commit to a specific policy promise. A final consideration: AIT would be undermined if it were implemented without specifying the steps that would be taken to bring about inflation overshoots.
我們的底線|Our bottom line
美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策手冊(cè)變化的實(shí)際影響可能只是AIT和其他補(bǔ)償策略在書面上承諾的影子——除非該策略的變化伴隨著通脹目標(biāo)本身的上調(diào)。
The actual impact of a change in the Fed’s monetary policy playbook may only be a shadow of what AIT and other make-up strategies promise on paper – unless the change in the strategy comes with an upward adjustment to the inflation target itself.
注：Elga Bartsch博士為貝萊德投資研究所經(jīng)濟(jì)與市場(chǎng)研究主管。
Elga Bartsch, PhD, Head of Economic and Markets Research for the BlackRock Investment Institute, is a regular contributor to The Blog.
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