Yield curve control (YCC) involves targeting a longer-term interest rate by a central bank, then buying or selling as many bonds as necessary to hit that rate target. This approach is dramatically different from the Federal Reserve's typical way of managing U.S. economic growth and inflation, which is by setting a key short-term interest rate, the federal funds rate.
收益率曲線控制是指央行設(shè)定長期收益率目標(biāo)，然后通過購買或者賣出需要的債券來達(dá)到收益率目標(biāo)。這種路徑于美聯(lián)儲管理美國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長與通脹的典型方式極不相同。經(jīng)濟(jì)管理是通過設(shè)定短期關(guān)鍵利率，即聯(lián)邦基礎(chǔ)利率。
Advocates of yield curve control, also called YCC, argue that, as short-term interest rates approach zero, keeping longer-term rates down may become an increasingly more effective policy alternative for stimulating the economy. Also, this approach could help prevent a recession or lessen the impact of a downturn. Richard Clarida and Lael Brainard, current members of the Board of Governors at the Fed, as well as former Fed chairs Ben Bernanke and Janet Yellen have said that the Fed should consider using yield curve control.Jerome Powell, the current Fed chairman, also has said that he is potentially open to this policy option.
YCC的主張者認(rèn)為，隨著短期利率接近于零，不斷的降低長期利率相較于刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)是一個更為有效的刺激方式。并且，這種方式能夠防止經(jīng)濟(jì)衰退，或者讓下滑更小。Richard Clarida 和Lael Brainard ，現(xiàn)任Fed的決策委員會成員，以及前Fed主席 Ben Bernanke，Janet Yellen 都說過Fed應(yīng)該考慮使用YCC工具?，F(xiàn)任Fed主席Jerome Powell，也說過他對此項政策持開放態(tài)度。
Yield Curve Control (YCC) by the Fed would target specific long-term rates levels.
It sharply differs from quantitative easing (QE) in its approach.
YCC may be needed for economic stimulus as short-term rates near zero.
Former Fed chairs Bernanke and Yellen support the use of YCC.4
Through quantitative easing (QE) designed to combat the 2008 financial crisis and Great Recession, the Fed injected liquidity into the financial system through massive purchases of bonds on the open market. This bid up the prices of bonds, thus reducing longer-term interest rates and borrowing costs.
QE旨在應(yīng)對2008年金融危機和大蕭條，F(xiàn)ed通過大量在公開市場大量購買債券來向金融系統(tǒng)注入流動性。這種方式抬高了債券價格，因此降低了長期利率和借貸成本。
However, during the financial crisis, the Fed was not seeking to set a specific long-term interest rate. By contrast, under yield curve control, the Fed would set a specific long-term interest rate target and buy as many bonds as necessary to achieve it. YCC would set a specific price for the bonds in terms of their yield.
但在整個金融危機期間，F(xiàn)ederal并沒有尋求設(shè)定具體的長期收益率。相比之下，YCC方式，F(xiàn)ed將設(shè)定具體的收益率目標(biāo)，并購買盡可能多的債券來實現(xiàn)他。 YCC按照具體的收益來設(shè)定具體的債券價格。
During World War II, massive borrowing by the U.S. federal government was necessary to fund the war effort. However, this threatened to send interest rates soaring, making such debt increasingly more burdensome to service. In response, from 1942 to roughly 1947, the Fed successfully kept the government's borrowing costs down by purchasing any government bond that yielded more than certain targeted rates. Notably, the government was able to reach its goals with relatively modest bond purchases.
二次世界大戰(zhàn)期間，聯(lián)邦政府需要大量的舉債來應(yīng)對戰(zhàn)爭耗費。但是，大量的借債會造成收益率飆升，使得此類債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)更重。作為回應(yīng)，從1942到大約1947，F(xiàn)ed通過夠買超過特定利率的國債以降低政府的債務(wù)成本。值得注意的是，政府通過適度的債券購買來達(dá)到目標(biāo)。
這是不是一種事實上的債務(wù)貨幣化呢？
More recently, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) shifted in late 2016 from a policy of QE to one of YCC, in which it sought to peg the yield on 10-year Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) at 0%, in a effort to stimulate Japan's economy. Whenever the market yields on JGBs rise above the target range, the BoJ purchases bonds to push the yield back down.So far, the BoJ has been purchasing bonds at a slower pace than under QE.2?
日本央行-BoJ在2016年末從QE政策轉(zhuǎn)換為YCC政策: 試圖將10Y 日本政府債券盯在0%，希望如此能刺激日本經(jīng)濟(jì)。當(dāng)JGBs市場利率超過目標(biāo)利率，BoJ會購買債券來降低收益率。到目前為止，日本央行購買債券的步伐要比量化寬松的節(jié)奏更慢。
Pointing to the recent BoJ experience, advocates of YCC believe that the Fed also can achieve lower interest rates with a much smaller balance sheet than it built under QE.Not everyone is confident that YCC will work. An opinion piece in Bloomberg has described YCC as a 'bond trader's nightmare,' citing lengthy periods in which JGB trading has ground to a halt. Moreover, YCC could spur companies to increase their already heavy debt loads, while punishing pension funds and other savers.
根據(jù)BoJ經(jīng)驗，YCC的倡導(dǎo)者認(rèn)為Fed也能通過比QE更小規(guī)模的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表來實現(xiàn)更低的利率。當(dāng)并不是所有人都對YCC運作有信心。彭博有篇文章認(rèn)為YCC是債券交易者的噩夢： JGB交易長期停滯。而且，YCC將刺激公司增加本已負(fù)擔(dān)沉重的債務(wù)，同時懲罰了養(yǎng)老基金和其他儲蓄者。
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