The next outbreak? We are not ready.
下一次疫情爆發(fā)？我們還沒有準備好。
（Continued.
繼續(xù)。）
So next time, we might not be so lucky. You can have a virus where people feel well enough while they're infectious that they get on a plane or they go to a market. The source of the virus could be a natural epidemic like Ebola, or it could be bioterrorism. So there are things that would literally make things a thousand times worse.
所以下一次我們可能不會這么幸運了。 有的病毒可能讓你毫無察覺， 感染病毒的人或許完全沒有癥狀地乘飛機或者去逛商場， 他們其實已經(jīng)具有一定的傳染力了。 此外病毒的來源可以是天然的，像埃博拉病毒，或是由生物恐怖攻擊產(chǎn)生的。 所以，讓疫情成千倍的嚴重的病毒是存在的。
In fact, let's look at a model of a virus spread through the air, like the Spanish Flu back in 1918. So here's what would happen: It would spread throughout the world very, very quickly. And you can see over 30 million people died from that epidemic. So this is a serious problem. We should be concerned.
事實上，讓我們來看看一個病毒由空氣傳染的模型， 比如1918年的西班牙流感。 疫情有可能像這樣發(fā)展： 病毒會以很快的速度向全世界蔓延。 你可以看到全球有三千萬人死于這個疾病。 這就是個很嚴重的問題。 我們絕對應該重視。
But in fact, we can build a really good response system. We have the benefits of all the science and technology that we talk about here. We've got cell phones to get information from the public and get information out to them. We have satellite maps where we can see where people are and where they're moving.
但事實上我們可以建立一個很好的反應系統(tǒng)。 我們可以利用所有發(fā)展至今的科技和科學。 我們可以用手機來收集信息和發(fā)布信息。 我們有衛(wèi)星地圖可以看到 人們在哪里和往哪移動。
We have advances in biology that should dramatically change the turnaround time to look at a pathogen and be able to make drugs and vaccines that fit for that pathogen. So we can have tools, but those tools need to be put into an overall global health system. And we need preparedness.
我們在生物學上也有進展， 這可以大幅縮短我們找到病原的時間， 并可以在很短的時間里找出解藥和疫苗。 所以我們是有工具的， 但這些工具必須統(tǒng)合在 一個全球健康系統(tǒng)下。 此外我們必須處在準備良好的狀態(tài)。
The best lessons, I think, on how to get prepared are again, what we do for war. For soldiers, we have full-time, waiting to go. We have reserves that can scale us up to large numbers. NATO has a mobile unit that can deploy very rapidly. NATO does a lot of war games to check, are people well trained? Do they understand about fuel and logistics and the same radio frequencies? So they are absolutely ready to go. So those are the kinds of things we need to deal with an epidemic.
而我們?nèi)绾巫龊脺蕚洌?/span> 最好的例子還是來自于備戰(zhàn)。 對軍人來說，他們是隨時隨地 都準備好要投入戰(zhàn)爭的。 我們還有預備軍人， 能使備戰(zhàn)人口大量增加。 北約組織有個機動小組， 可以很快地行動起來。 北約組織有很多戰(zhàn)爭游戲可以測試人員是否已訓練有素？ 他們是否了解燃油、補給和相同的電臺頻率？ 是的話，那么他們就已準備好了。 這些就是面對疫情時我們該準備的事。
What are the key pieces? First, we need strong health systems in poor countries. That's where mothers can give birth safely, kids can get all their vaccines. But, also where we'll see the outbreak very early on. We need a medical reserve corps: lots of people who've got the training and background who are ready to go, with the expertise. And then we need to pair those medical people with the military. taking advantage of the military's ability to move fast, do logistics and secure areas.
關鍵的項目有哪些？ 第一，在貧窮的國家里必須有發(fā)達的衛(wèi)生系統(tǒng)。 母親們可以安全地生小孩，小孩們可以接種疫苗。我們也可以在很早的階段偵查到疫情的爆發(fā)。我們需要后備的醫(yī)療部隊：還有很多訓練有素的專業(yè)人員，隨時準備好能帶著他們專長到疫區(qū)。我們可以用軍隊來配合醫(yī)護人員，利用軍隊移動迅速的特性，來進行后勤運輸和維持安全。
We need to do simulations, germ games, not war games, so that we see where the holes are. The last time a germ game was done in the United States was back in 2001, and it didn't go so well. So far the score is germs: 1, people: 0. Finally, we need lots of advanced R&D in areas of vaccines and diagnostics. There are some big breakthroughs, like the Adeno-associated virus, that could work very, very quickly.
我們也需要進行一些情境模擬，不是進行戰(zhàn)爭游戲而是進行病菌游戲，看看防衛(wèi)漏洞在哪。上一次的病菌游戲是在美國進行的，那是在2001年了，進行得也不是很順利。目前病菌得一分人類零分。最后我們在疫苗和病理學上還需要很多的研發(fā)工作。在某些方面例如腺相關病毒上，我們已經(jīng)有了相當?shù)耐黄疲?/span>這可以在很短的時間內(nèi)生效。
Now I don't have an exact budget for what this would cost, but I'm quite sure it's very modest compared to the potential harm. The World Bank estimates that if we have a worldwide flu epidemic, global wealth will go down by over three trillion dollars and we'd have millions and millions of deaths. These investments offer significant benefits beyond just being ready for the epidemic. The primary healthcare, the R&D, those things would reduce global health equity and make the world more just as well as more safe.
我目前沒有明確的預算這到底需要多少錢，但是我確信跟損失比起來是比較便宜的。 根據(jù)世界銀行的估算，如果我們有流感的疫情暴發(fā)，全球經(jīng)濟會損失三萬多億美元。我們還會可能有千百萬人員的死亡。 跟僅僅只是做好準備比起來，這些額外的投入會帶來顯著的好處。基礎的衛(wèi)生保健、研發(fā)，可以促進全球健康的平衡發(fā)展，讓這個世界更健康更安全。
So I think this should absolutely be a priority. There's no need to panic. We don't have to hoard cans of spaghetti or go down into the basement. But we need to get going, because time is not on our side.
所以我覺得這非常重要重要，刻不容緩，不需要驚慌。 我們不需要囤積面罐頭 或是躲到地下室去，但是我們必須急起直追，因為時間有限。
In fact, if there's one positive thing that can come out of the Ebola epidemic, it's that it can serve as an early warning, a wake-up call, to get ready. If we start now, we can be ready for the next epidemic.
事實上，要說這場埃博拉病毒的疫情帶來了什么正面影響的話， 那就是提早響起了警報， 讓我們覺醒并做好準備。 我們?nèi)绻纯涕_始準備，那么在 下一場疫情來臨前我們是可以準備好的。
Thank you.
謝謝。
(Applause)
（掌聲）
bioterrorism 生物恐怖主義
pathogen 病原體
deploy 部署
expertise 專業(yè)知識，專門技能
simulation 模擬
modest 不太大，不太貴
hoard 儲藏，囤積
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