Some thought that German chancellor Angela Merkel would quietly take the abuse heaped on her, and her program of "austerity" (or deleveraging as we call it, but that just does not have quite the negative connotations of a word that has become symbolic for all that is wrong with a massively overlevered world) by the new French president and Germany's increasingly more insolvent "partners", without much of a fuss.
That changed over the weekend, following a Spiegel article titled "Merkel prepares to strike back against Hollande." Now, as Bloomberg reports, the German retaliation is picking up speed, following a thinly veiled threat from the former German finance minister, who basically said that French bonds are unlikely to continue seeing the flight to safety bid they have been enjoying recently, once the rating agencies cut France even more from its one vaunted AAA rating, where Moody's and Fitch still have the country (following the S&P downgrade to AA+ in January), but likely not for long now that Germany has spoken.
From Bloomberg:
Former German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrueck said French President Francois Hollande’s proposals may have an impact on the country’s credit rating, Bild newspaper reported, citing an interview to be published tomorrow.
“Investors and rating companies will naturally take a close look at the course France sets,” Bild quoted Steinbrueck as saying in response to a question about French proposals to lower the retirement age and tax top earners at a higher rate. “That can have consequences for France’s credit rating.”
No need for blustery rhetoric or pompous oratory: two sentences and the French ego balloon just got popped.
What is more important than whether or not France gets an official downgrade warning, is that Germany refuses to pursue some form of Nash equilibrium, so critical for Europe attaining a conciliatory middle ground, and instead continues to defect at every opportunity.
And now, with Hollande presumably silenced, it is Mario Monti's turn.
兩個(gè)國(guó)家在政策方面的取向存在較大的差異： Hollande 以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)作為手段，而Merkel 則強(qiáng)調(diào)財(cái)政紀(jì)律，手段方面采取的是緊縮為主政策手段。前德國(guó)財(cái)長(zhǎng)Steinbrueck對(duì)于Hollande經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)計(jì)劃的評(píng)價(jià)是客觀的，經(jīng)濟(jì)緊縮在歐洲面臨的困境也是客觀的：這種兩難的選擇正是全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)前景的一個(gè)縮影。從債務(wù)危機(jī)的演變前景來(lái)看，政策在增長(zhǎng)和紀(jì)律方面的傾斜度對(duì)全球經(jīng)濟(jì)政策分析具有參考價(jià)值。 緊縮可被視為更加保守的選擇，類似于美國(guó)對(duì)金融機(jī)構(gòu)采取的監(jiān)管，這意味著需要仔細(xì)觀察全球資本流動(dòng)的驅(qū)動(dòng)邏輯--------是否依然遵循布雷頓森林體系二的范式？或者世界經(jīng)濟(jì)多極化的方向成為主流？
