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Fed and Federico

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)與費(fèi)德里科·斯托爾茲涅格

英文部分選自經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人Finance and economics版塊

Emerging markets

新興市場(chǎng)

Fed and Federico

美聯(lián)儲(chǔ) 與 費(fèi)德里科·斯托爾茲涅格（前阿根廷央行行長(zhǎng)）

Why emerging markets get in a tizz about their currencies

新興市場(chǎng)為何出現(xiàn)貨幣恐慌？

IMAGINE if Milton Friedman had been put in charge of a central bank, only to lose his job for expanding the money supply too quickly. Or if Robert Shiller, the Nobel-prizewinning author of “Irrational Exuberance”, were given a similar post, only to depart having allowed a stockmarket bubble to inflate. That is the kind of irony that attended the resignation under pressure of Federico Sturzenegger as governor of Argentina’s central bank on June 14th, a casualty of deepening turmoil in emerging markets.

假設(shè)米爾頓·弗里德曼(Milton Friedman)被任命為央行行長(zhǎng)，加快擴(kuò)張貨幣供給可能會(huì)成為他丟失工作的唯一理由。又或者，如果諾貝爾文學(xué)獎(jiǎng)得主羅伯特·希勒 (Robert Shiller)——《非理性繁榮》(IrRational Exuberance)的作者，被授予類似的職位，也會(huì)因?yàn)槿斡晒墒信菽呐蛎浂x職。令人諷刺的是，6月14日，阿根廷央行行長(zhǎng)費(fèi)德里科·斯托爾茲涅格（Federico Sturzeneggeras）迫于種種壓力遞交辭呈，，而他的離職也進(jìn)一步加劇了新興市場(chǎng)的動(dòng)蕩。

米爾頓·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman): 1976年獲諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng), 美國(guó)當(dāng)代經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家、芝加哥大學(xué)教授、芝加哥經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派代表人物之一，貨幣學(xué)派的代表人物。以研究宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)、經(jīng)濟(jì)史、統(tǒng)計(jì)學(xué)、及主張自由放任資本主義而聞名。

羅伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller): 2013年因“資產(chǎn)價(jià)格實(shí)證分析方面的貢獻(xiàn)”獲得諾貝爾經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)獎(jiǎng)，1946年3月26日生于底特律，美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家，學(xué)者，暢銷書作家。當(dāng)年憑借基本面分析、以一部《非理性繁榮》準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測(cè)了互聯(lián)網(wǎng)泡沫的羅伯特·希勒（Robert J. Shiller）教授近來(lái)對(duì)全球主要股票市場(chǎng)進(jìn)行了獨(dú)到的分析

Mr Sturzenegger was a former professor at Universidad Torcuato Di Tella in Buenos Aires. His most-cited paper showed that stated currency policy was often a poor guide to actual policy. Many countries claim to let their currencies float freely but in fact “intervene recurrently to stabilize their exchange rates”. Their deeds often belie their words.

斯托爾茲涅格先生曾是布宜諾斯艾利的斯托爾夸托·迪特拉（Torcuato Di Tella）大學(xué)的教授。他的被引用率最高的論文表明：官方所公開的貨幣政策往往是實(shí)際政策的不良向?qū)А?許多國(guó)家聲稱讓其貨幣自由浮動(dòng)，但事實(shí)上“政府經(jīng)常干預(yù)以穩(wěn)定匯率”。政府常常言行不一。

Mr Sturzenegger lost his job for much the same thing. Financial markets struggled to reconcile his statements on the currency with his management of it, eroding his credibility. After Argentina agreed on a $50bn loan from the IMF, he said he would intervene in the foreign-exchange market only in “disruptive situations”. But when the peso soon came under renewed pressure, he resumed selling foreign-exchange reserves, which fell by $665m on June 12th-13th. He gave up the fight on June 14th, allowing the currency to drop by 5.3% against the dollar on a day that ended with his departure.

斯托爾茲涅格先生也因幾乎同樣的事情無(wú)法繼續(xù)履職。金融市場(chǎng)很難將其對(duì)貨幣的觀點(diǎn)與其實(shí)際對(duì)貨幣調(diào)控手段所結(jié)合在一起，因此其信譽(yù)受損。在阿根廷與國(guó)際貨幣基金組織（IMF）達(dá)成500億美元（USD）貸款協(xié)議后，他表示只有在“破壞性局面”下才會(huì)干預(yù)外匯市場(chǎng)。但當(dāng)比索面臨新一輪（下跌）壓力時(shí)，他重新采取拋售外匯儲(chǔ)備的舉措，致使 6月12日至13日的外匯儲(chǔ)備減少了6.65億美元。6月14日，他放棄了這場(chǎng)斗爭(zhēng)，一天內(nèi)比索對(duì)美元（USD）的匯率暴跌5.3%，最終導(dǎo)致他的離任。

Why do policymakers in emerging markets fret so much over exchange rates? A weak currency, after all, makes a country’s exports and assets more competitive. And when capital flees, it can be better to let the currency fall than to put up interest rates (and throttle growth) in an effort to keep the exchange rate stable.

為什么新興市場(chǎng)的決策人如此擔(dān)憂匯率呢？畢竟，疲軟的貨幣政策讓國(guó)家的出口和資本更富有競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力。當(dāng)資本外流時(shí)，為了穩(wěn)定匯率，更好的辦法是讓貨幣貶值，而不是提高利率（阻礙經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)）。

One reason to worry is inflation. Weak- er currencies push up import costs, jeopar- dising price stability. The plummeting Turkish lira, for example, has hampered the fight against inflation in a country where prices respond quickly to currency weakness. In response, Turkey’s central bank, like Argentina’s, has been forced to raise interest rates dramatically, despite the opposition of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is seeking re-election as president.

通貨膨脹是擔(dān)憂的原因。疲軟的貨幣政策推高進(jìn)口成本，危害價(jià)格穩(wěn)定。在一個(gè)國(guó)家價(jià)格會(huì)迅速對(duì)疲軟的貨幣政策做出反應(yīng)。例如，（國(guó)際匯率市場(chǎng)上）急劇下跌的土耳其里拉阻礙了（土耳其國(guó)內(nèi)）對(duì)抗通貨膨脹的斗爭(zhēng)。作為回應(yīng)，像阿根廷央行一樣，土耳其中央銀行被迫大幅度提高利率。盡管此舉遭到謀求連任的土耳其總理埃爾多安的反對(duì)。

According to Capital Economics, finan- cial conditions in both countries have tightened by more this year than they did in the same period of 2013, the year of the “taper tantrum”, when America’s Federal Reserve said it would eventually slow its pace of quantitative easing. In many other countries, however, this year’s tantrum is not yet as bad as its forerunner. Brazil’s cur- rency has fallen by 9% since mid-April. But the central bank has refrained from raising interest rates, insisting that there is no “me- chanical relationship” between recent shocks and monetary policy.

根據(jù)資本經(jīng)濟(jì)，今年兩國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)狀況，與2013年同期相比，更為緊縮。2013年被稱為“QE縮減恐慌癥”，當(dāng)時(shí)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)宣稱最終會(huì)放緩量化寬松的速度。然而，在許多國(guó)家，今年的QE縮減恐慌不像先前者那樣糟糕。自四月中旬以來(lái)，巴西貨幣貶值9%，但是央行限制提高利率，堅(jiān)持認(rèn)為最近的動(dòng)蕩與貨幣政策之間沒有“機(jī)械化固定的關(guān)系”。

Taper Tantrum：Taper tantrum is the term used for the 2013 surge in U.S. Treasury yields, which resulted from the Federal Reserve's use of tapering to gradually reduce the amount of money it was feeding into the economy. The taper tantrum ensued when investors panicked in reaction to news of this tapering and drew their money rapidly out of the bond market, which drastically increased bond yields.

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/t/taper-tantrum.asp#ixzz5JOoUV33x

縮減恐慌（taper tantrum）曾被用來(lái)描述2013年美國(guó)國(guó)債收益率短期內(nèi)急劇上升的現(xiàn)象，而這一現(xiàn)象源自于美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)當(dāng)年逐漸減少其向?qū)嶓w經(jīng)濟(jì)的資金注入的財(cái)政政策行為。由于縮減恐慌導(dǎo)致大量債券投資者對(duì)于未來(lái)貨幣寬松的預(yù)期變小，從而大量拋售債券，使得短期內(nèi)債券的收益率急劇上升。）

Another reason to worry about exchange rates is debt: a weaker currency makes dollar or euro liabilities harder to repay. According to the Institute of International Finance, the combined foreign-currency debt of Argentina’s government and non-financial companies exceeds 50% of GDP. In Turkey, it is 47%. But the burden elsewhere is modest. It is less than 25% of GDP in Mexico and South Africa, less than 20% in Brazil and Malaysia, and closer to 10% in India, China and Thailand.

擔(dān)心匯率的另一個(gè)原因是債務(wù)：貨幣貶值會(huì)使美元或歐元債務(wù)難以償還。根據(jù)國(guó)際金融研究所（IIF）的數(shù)據(jù)，阿根廷政府和非金融公司的外幣債務(wù)超過GDP的50%。在土耳其，這一比例為47%，然而其他國(guó)家這一比例是中性適度的。墨西哥和南非的外幣債務(wù)不到GDP的25%，巴西和馬來(lái)西亞的外幣債務(wù)不到GDP的20%，印度、中國(guó)和泰國(guó)則接近10%。

In Indonesia, both inflation (3.2%) and foreign-currency debt (19% of GDP) are low. Its central bank nonetheless raised rates twice in May to stabilise the rupiah. The country, still haunted by the Asian financial crisis, associates a falling currency with a faltering economy. And like other emerging markets, it fears that currency weakness can feed on itself, as declines fuel speculation about further declines.

在印度尼西亞，通貨膨脹率(3.2%)和外幣債務(wù)(GDP的19%)都很低。盡管如此，為了穩(wěn)定盧比匯率，印尼央行在5月份曾兩次上調(diào)利率。這個(gè)國(guó)家，仍然飽受亞洲金融危機(jī)的困擾，將貨幣貶值與搖搖欲墜的經(jīng)濟(jì)聯(lián)系在一起。和其他新興市場(chǎng)一樣，由于盧布本身作為弱勢(shì)貨幣會(huì)進(jìn)一步加劇其未來(lái)的貶值預(yù)期，印尼政府擔(dān)心貨幣的疲軟可能會(huì)自食其果。

This is presumably the kind of “disruptive situation” that Mr Sturzenegger had in mind when positing exceptions to his rule of non-intervention. He was perhaps unfortunate that such a situation arose so shortly after he had promised to step back: the sharp drop in Argentina’s peso on June 11th was exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish signals after its meeting on June 12th-13th. In emerging markets, currency policy can be complicated—not least because of the financial markets’ demand for simplicity.

這大概是斯圖塞內(nèi)赫爾先生在提出他的不干涉主張時(shí)所考慮到的那種“破壞性局面”。很不幸，在他宣布退位不久，就出現(xiàn)了這種情況：美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)在6月12日至13日的會(huì)議后發(fā)出的鷹派信號(hào)所加劇了6月11日以來(lái)阿根廷比索的急劇下跌的狀況。新興市場(chǎng)的貨幣政策往往能夠變的很復(fù)雜，尤其當(dāng)市場(chǎng)上存在著大量簡(jiǎn)單性需求。

翻譯組： 

Olivia，女，教育行業(yè)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

Vivian，女，國(guó)際商務(wù)碩士， 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

Fiona， 女 ，教雅思的民工， 經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

Lucia ，女，翻譯學(xué)碩士三年制，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

校核組：

Yoga，女，政府行業(yè)，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲

Leon,  男，ANU finance在讀研究生，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人鐵粉

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