歐洲中心的定時炸彈 Why France could become the biggest dangerto Europe’s single currency為什么法國會成為歐洲單一貨幣體系的最大危機 The threat of the euro’s collapse has abated for themoment, but putting the single currency right willinvolve years of pain. The pressure for reform and budget cuts is fiercest in Greece,Portugal, Spain and Italy, which all saw mass strikes and clashes with police this week. Butahead looms a bigger problem that could dwarf any of these: France. 歐盟瓦解的威脅日益減少，但是實行單一貨幣政策所帶來的痛楚會持續(xù)數(shù)年。對于希臘來說來自于改革和財政預(yù)算赤字的壓力是非常大的。葡萄牙，西班牙和意大利本周都發(fā)生了大規(guī)模的游行示威活動。但是擺在面前的還有一個更大的問題：法國。 The country has always been at the heart of the euro, as of the European Union. PresidentFrancois Mitterrand argued for the single currency because he hoped to bolster Frenchinfluence in an EU that would otherwise fall under the sway of a unified Germany. France hasgained from the euro: it is borrowing at record low rates and has avoided the troubles of theMediterranean. Yet even before May, when Francois Hollande became the country’s first Socialistpresident since Mitterrand, France had ceded leadership in the euro crisis to Germany. And nowits economy looks increasingly vulnerable as well. 法國這個國家是歐洲，也是歐盟的中心。弗朗索瓦·密特朗表示支持單一貨幣政策因為他希望提高法國在歐盟的影響，否則遲早會敗于統(tǒng)一后的德國手里。法國已經(jīng)從歐盟得到了甜頭：它以相對低的利率從而成功規(guī)避了地中海地區(qū)的問題。即使在五月之前，當(dāng)奧朗德成為自密特朗，這位轉(zhuǎn)讓了法國在歐盟經(jīng)濟危機的主導(dǎo)權(quán)給德國的總統(tǒng)后，法國的第一位社會黨總統(tǒng)。法國的經(jīng)濟體系已經(jīng)相當(dāng)脆弱了。 As our special report in this issue explains, France still has many strengths, but its weaknesseshave been laid bare by the euro crisis. For years it has been losing competitiveness toGermany and the trend has accelerated as the Germans have cut costs and pushed through bigreforms. Without the option of currency devaluation, France has resorted to public spendingand debt. Even as other EU countries have curbed the reach of the state, it has grown in Franceto consume almost 57% of GDP, the highest share in the euro zone. Because of the failure tobalance a single budget since 1981, public debt has risen from 22% of GDP then to over 90%now. 就像我們的特別報道中提到的，法國仍然具有很大實力，但是其脆弱的部分在歐盟危機中已經(jīng)體現(xiàn)無疑。法國在近年來與德國的競爭中已經(jīng)逐漸失去了力量，特別是當(dāng)?shù)聡_始減少開支和進行大的改革后。沒有歐元貶值的機遇，法國已經(jīng)踏上不得不向求助于公共開支和貸款的道路了。即使想其他歐盟國家一樣努力的避免走上這條路，仍避免不了其越來越高的GDP消耗--- GDP的消耗已經(jīng)高達57%，高于其他歐盟區(qū)國家。因為從1981年起，由于其對于單一預(yù)算的失誤，公共債務(wù)已經(jīng)從GDP的22%上升到了如今的90%。 The business climate in France has also worsened. French firms are burdened by overly rigidlabour- and product-market regulation, exceptionally high taxes and the euro zone’s heaviestsocial charges on payrolls. Not surprisingly, new companies are rare. France has fewer smalland medium-sized enterprises, today’s engines of job growth, than Germany, Italy or Britain.The economy is stagnant, may tip into recession this quarter and will barely grow next year.Over 10% of the workforce, and over 25% of the young, are jobless. The external current-account deficit has swung from a small surplus in 1999 into one of the euro zone’s biggestdeficits. In short, too many of France’s firms are uncompetitive and the country’s bloatedgovernment is living beyond its means. 法國的商業(yè)氛圍也愈加的壞了。法國的公司承擔(dān)的巨大的勞工和市場的管理條例，特別是高額的稅收和歐盟區(qū)最高的社保支付。意料之中的，新公司非常的少。法國的中小型企業(yè)越來越少，其就業(yè)壓力也超過德國，意大利和英國。經(jīng)濟停滯不前，甚至在這個季度有所倒退，未來的增長率也是不被看好的。再者，法國將會有超過10%的勞動力，超過25%的年輕勞動力將會無工作可做。在外，現(xiàn)如今的財政狀況也令人堪憂，在1999年還小有剩余，如今卻成了整個歐盟地區(qū)的最大赤字國。總的來說，太多的法國公司沒有競爭力，其驕傲的政府也并未發(fā)揮出作用。 Hollande at bay Hollande等待起航 With enough boldness and grit, Mr Hollande could now reform France. His party holds powerin the legislature and in almost all the regions. The left should be better able than the right topersuade the unions to accept change. Mr Hollande has acknowledged that France lackscompetitiveness. And, encouragingly, he has recently promised to implement many of thechanges recommended in a new report by Louis Gallois, a businessman, including reducing theburden of social charges on companies. The president wants to make the labour market moreflexible. This week he even talked of the excessive size of the state, promising to “do better,while spending less”. 有著足夠的勇氣和毅力，奧朗德先生可以開始振興法國了。他所在的政黨在滲入于司法界和各種區(qū)域。左派會比優(yōu)派更容易說服聯(lián)邦區(qū)接受改革。奧朗德先生已經(jīng)了解到法國缺乏競爭力。更加歌舞人心的是他最近承諾的實行一系列由路易高盧瓦提出的新提案，包括減少公司承擔(dān)的社保金。這說明，總統(tǒng)想要使勞動力市場更加的活躍。這周他甚至提出要改變現(xiàn)在的狀況，承諾“花費最少，做的更好”。 Yet set against the gravity of France’s economic problems, Mr Hollande still seems half-hearted. Why should business believe him when he has already pushed through a string ofleftish measures, including a 75% top income-tax rate, increased taxes on companies, wealth,capital gains and dividends, a higher minimum wage and a partial rollback of a previouslyaccepted rise in the pension age? No wonder so many would-be entrepreneurs are talking ofleaving the country. 然而面對法國嚴重的經(jīng)濟問題。奧朗德先生顯得力不從心。當(dāng)他已經(jīng)開始推行一系列左派的措施，包括最高75%的收入稅率，增長公司，財產(chǎn)，資本收入和紅利的稅收，更高的最低工資，和降低部分之前已經(jīng)升高的最低退休年齡時，這些措施使商界更難以相信他。因此，越來越多的企業(yè)家選擇離開這個國家。 European governments that have undertaken big reforms have done so because there was adeep sense of crisis, because voters believed there was no alternative and because politicalleaders had the conviction that change was unavoidable. None of this describes Mr Hollandeor France. During the election campaign, Mr Hollande barely mentioned the need forbusiness-friendly reform, focusing instead on ending austerity. His Socialist Party remainsunmodernised and hostile to capitalism: since he began to warn about France’scompetitiveness, his approval rating has plunged. Worse, France is aiming at a movingtarget. All euro-zone countries are making structural reforms, and mostly faster and moreextensively than France is doing (see article). The IMF recently warned that France risks beingleft behind by Italy and Spain. 歐盟政府承諾的大改革已經(jīng)開始，因為存在的深切的金融危機感，因為投票者相信已經(jīng)沒有選擇，因為執(zhí)政者們相信改變是不可避免的了。盡管如此，以上任何一種都不能形容奧朗德先生和法國。在大選期間，奧朗德先生很少提到對于友好的商業(yè)改革的需要，而是更加關(guān)注于結(jié)束緊縮。他所在的政黨始終保持保守態(tài)度，對于資本化持有敵意：自從他提出關(guān)于法國競爭力的問題，他的支持率便開始跳水。更加糟糕的是，法國的目標一直在變動。所有歐元區(qū)的國家都開始實施框架上的改革，并且相對法國來所更快且集中。國際貨幣基金組織最近警告說法國的危機已經(jīng)高于意大利和西班牙。 At stake is not just the future of France, but that of the euro. Mr Hollande has correctlybadgered Angela Merkel for pushing austerity too hard. But he has hidden behind his napkinwhen it comes to the political integration needed to solve the euro crisis. There has to begreater European-level control over national economic policies. France has reluctantly ratifiedthe recent fiscal compact, which gives Brussels extra budgetary powers. But neither the elitenor the voters are yet prepared to transfer more sovereignty, just as they are unprepared fordeep structural reforms. While most countries discuss how much sovereignty they will have togive up, France is resolutely avoiding any debate on the future of Europe. Mr Hollande wasbadly burned in 2005 when voters rejected the EU constitutional treaty after his party splitdown the middle. A repeat of that would pitch the single currency into chaos. 危險的并不只是法國的未來，同樣也是歐盟的未來。因為推行緊縮的難度，奧德朗先生正確的糾正了安格拉·默克爾的問題。但是當(dāng)面對解決歐盟債務(wù)危機的政治整合問題時，他又躲了起來。整個歐盟區(qū)的調(diào)控不得不高于國家的經(jīng)濟政策。法國勉強同意了最近的政府財政條約，這給了Brussels額外的預(yù)算上的優(yōu)勢。但是無論是精英還是投票者都對主權(quán)轉(zhuǎn)移沒有準備，就如他們對結(jié)構(gòu)改革沒有準備一樣。當(dāng)大多數(shù)國家在討論他們會給出多大的主權(quán)讓步時，法國堅定的拒絕關(guān)于歐盟未來的討論。奧朗德先生被惹火上身在2005年當(dāng)投票者拒絕歐盟的憲法條約時也是他所在政黨分裂之后。這樣的重復(fù)也會使單一貨幣政策陷入混亂。 Too big not to succeed?太大不利于成功？ Our most recent special report on a big European country (in June 2011) focused on Italy’sfailure to reform under Silvio Berlusconi; by the end of the year he was out—and change hadbegun. So far investors have been indulgent of France; indeed, long-term interest rates havefallen a bit. But sooner or later the centime will drop. You cannotdefy economics for long. 我們最近的關(guān)于歐洲國家的特別報道集中在西爾維奧·貝盧斯科尼領(lǐng)導(dǎo)下的意大利的不支持改革上。在年末的時候他出局了，改革得以開始。至今為止，投資者都太嬌慣法國了，因此長期利率只跌了一點。但是，遲早生丁會貶值。因為，沒有人可以長時間的違背經(jīng)濟規(guī)律。 Unless Mr Hollande shows that he is genuinely committed to changing the path his country hasbeen on for the past 30 years, France will lose the faith of investors—and of Germany. Asseveral euro-zone countries have found, sentiment in the markets can shift quickly. The crisiscould hit as early as next year. Previous European currency upheavals have often startedelsewhere only to finish by engulfing France—and this time, too, France rather than Italy or Spain could be where the euro’s fate is decided. Mr Hollande does not have long to defuse thetime-bomb at the heart of Europe. 除非奧朗德先生表示他真誠的承諾改變他的國家堅持了30年的道路，不然法國將會使投資者和德國失去信心。正如一些歐元區(qū)的國家已經(jīng)發(fā)現(xiàn)的，市場的敏感度時在快速變化的。危機可能會在明年早期就到來。之前的已經(jīng)發(fā)生在其他地區(qū)的歐元的巨大變動同樣會吞沒法國。法國會超過意大利和西班牙決定歐盟的滅亡。奧朗德先生已經(jīng)沒有多少時間拆除這個在歐洲中心的定時炸彈了。 1詞匯學(xué)習(xí)： 1.single currency 單一貨幣On membership of the single currency, theGovernment's policy is unchanged. 作為單一貨幣的成員國，英國政府的政策始終如一。2.sooner or later 遲早；早晚He will sooner or later be rewarded for his wicked conduct 他的惡行遲早會受到報應(yīng)。3.half-hearted 力不從心；敷衍了事I am sorry that he should be so half hearted about the important work. 我很遺憾，他對這項重要工作竟這樣敷衍塞責(zé)。 4.when it comes to 談及；提到例句:When it comes to the crunch they will support us. 到緊要關(guān)頭他們會支持我們的。
